Moon trigger bug

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FtFox
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Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:54 am

Moon trigger bug

Postby FtFox » Mon Mar 17, 2014 8:08 am

I'm used 19 moon triggers with 20% chance, and have no moon, why?

Talizorah
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Joined: Sat Jul 20, 2013 10:16 pm
Location: North Carolina, USA

Re: Moon trigger bug

Postby Talizorah » Mon Mar 17, 2014 11:15 am

Satellites are probability based. While purchasing the % boost can help, it does not guarantee you will get one. I have found it's not worth it to buy the boosts, but to grind it out the old fashioned way. Remember that each attack is separate. 5 attacks at 20% each means you have a 20% chance each time, not 100% by the fifth attack.

It would be nice to see a cumulative % added until you get a sat on a planet, say 10% of the previous attempt carries over to the next, until a sat is created. This would only be limited to chance based in debris, so the cumulative % pool could increase by a maximum of 2% each attempt.

So if an attack created a 10% chance from debris in the first attempt, 1% adds into the cumulative pool. The next attempt yields 20% from debris + 1% from the pool. The pool gains 2%, putting it at 3% bonus. The third attempt yields 9% from debris + 3% from the pool. The pool gains no bonus. The fourth attempt yields 16% from debris + 3% from the pool. The pool gains 1% putting it at 4% bonus. This would continue till that planet has a sat.

So I would suggest that from 0%-9% the pool gains 0% bonus. From 10%-19% the pool gains 1% bonus. 20% gains the pool 2% bonus. And bonus is only gained from debris made, not the total % chance from the attack.

sphinx.frank
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Re: Moon trigger bug

Postby sphinx.frank » Mon Mar 17, 2014 8:57 pm

thanks Talizorah, it sounds good, we'll talk about it.

FtFox
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Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2014 7:54 am

Re: Moon trigger bug

Postby FtFox » Tue Mar 18, 2014 2:14 am

I know what 20% do not accumulate, but why we talk about 20% while 19 attacks dont gives a moon. 20% in average statistic gives a moon in every 5 attacks with 20% chance, but if 19 attacks dont give a moon, why you write 20%, write truth info, write trigger gives 5% chance for create a moon. Why you doing fools from us?

Talizorah
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Re: Moon trigger bug

Postby Talizorah » Tue Mar 18, 2014 12:42 pm

Ft Fox, yes the system seems unfairly low, but a theoretical 20% chance is entirely accurate in this situation. It is not false advertising. Think of it more this way: each time you try for a satellite, your most favorable outcome is you fail 80% of the time. I would say most attempts average around 10-13%, which means you will fail to get a sat 87-90% of the time. In most statistics, having 90% accuracy is considered pretty good. When your theoretical fail rate averages 90%, your actual fail rate should really be much higher.

For example:
In practice, a basketball player can make a half-court shot 20% of the time. This is the theoretical percentage. When it comes to the actual game, that player makes the half-court shot only 5% of the time. This is the actual percentage.

What is given is the theoretical percentage. The actual percentage varies from player to player, and for lack of a better term, is based entirely on luck. I have seen cases like yours where 25 attempts at 20% yield 0 satellites, whereas I have seen 4 attempts at 9% produce 3 satellites. There is always risk involved here. Trying for a satellite is like gambling: you must choose how much to wager.


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